What is the Impact that COVID-19 has had on key dynamics, competitive advantages and valuations across a number of sectors of stock universe?
If you look at the past two months specifically,global equities rallied strongly in November, mainly due to several vaccines proving effective against Covid-19. The improved risk appetite saw corporate bonds outperform government bonds. Buoyed by surplus global liquidity and weaken dollar, foreign fund inflow into Indian equities touched record levels in November, surpassing the Rs 50,000-crore mark for the first time. These factors have proved to be extremely positive for the stock markets and moving forward, the expectation is that the stock market valuations shall continue, and the rally is expected to hold.
With the day-to-day fluctuations of the stock market, what stocks will do good in the short term?
I see a lot of people shying away from mid-cap and small-cap stocks, but their performance has been largely positive especially in the month of November. In the month of November, the benchmark index Nifty surged 11% largely led by financials. In comparison, bothmid-cap and small-cap index have outperformed Nifty. The mid-cap index rose 15% whereas Small cap index gain 13%. In terms of valuation, a lot of mid-cap and small-cap stocks have lot of upside potential left.
What is your review of how the economy performed in 2020 and what to expect in 2021?
In the second quarter of FY21, we have witnessed a better than anticipated recovery in GDP coming at 7.5%, against the broad consensus at -8.5%. There has been a headline recovery in the second quarter which is quite noteworthy. Here are some of the positive factors
Notwithstanding Q2, one should remain cognizant about the following risks:
FY21 GDP is now estimated at -7.5%
What the RBI has in store in 2021 given the current economic climate?
If you look at the last few policies by the RBI, you will find that the RBI has continued to remain cautious on the inflation and in the recent policy we could find that it has remained a little optimistic on the growth side, thereby holding the repo rate at 4%. Going forward, it is our opinion that the RBIs will continue to enhance the liquidity for the targeted stressed sectors and the currency markets are likely to take a cue from this.
For 2021, what kind of return can investors expect to receive from the NIFTY?
It is difficult to put a number on Nifty returns for the next year. My view is that investors should not expect the repeat of what happened to Nifty in the past few months. It is best to have reasonable expectations from the market in 2021. Stick to your asset allocation and rebalance your portfolio by booking profits at regular levels. Your asset allocation is your best guide.
How to choose the right stock?
Attributes of a good quality stock are as follows:
What should be the strategy for long term – “Buy and Hold” Investors?
The strategy for long term should be not to panic with short-term market blips. Market movements are never linear, and a correction follows a peak. However, it’s vital to take into account the big picture and remain committed to your investments. A periodical review is equally important to identify laggards and weed them out.
Should I move some money to Gold? Heard it’s an insurance against bad times.
The global pandemic coupled with falling interest rates had a significant role to play in the recent gold rally. It definitely makes sense to invest in the yellow metal as it’s a hedge against inflation. An allocation of 10-20% of the total portfolio value will certainly add value in the long run.
I prefer investing in sovereign gold bonds rather than physical gold which has issues related to purity, high making charges and storage, among others. These bonds are issued by the government at the existing gold prices with a tenure of 8 years.Interest is paid @ 2.5% p.a.These bonds can be sold after a lock-in of 5 years and if held till maturity, the capital gain is tax-free. Alternatively, you can also invest in Gold ETFs and Gold funds as they are available on the tap.
I have seen markets going up on a daily basis, but my portfolio has hardly gained. What should I do?
Be patient. If your portfolio is well-diversified with quality holdings, it will improve with time. If the fundamentals are strong, gains are not far away. Avoid being impulsive and take any rash decisions.
I am happy to see my portfolio in profit for the first time in many years. I fear I will lose the same if markets go down. Should I book profits or stay put?
Booking profits depends on whether your target price for a stock has been reached. If not, it’s better to stay put. Additionally,see if your exposure to equity is more than what is warranted by asset allocation. If yes, then certainly book profits and reduce the same.
What should be the criteria for choosing the right mutual fund?
I firmly believe that you must look at these parameters while choosing the fund you wish to invest in:
Does low NAV mean better returns from a mutual fund?
No, it doesn’t. In fact, it’s one of the most common misconceptions that people have regarding mutual fund investment. NAV or net asset value is the price at which you purchase units from mutual fund houses, and it’s calculated by dividing the total value of an asset in a portfolio. Instead, look at the quality of the underlying holdings. It’s the portfolio and not the NAV that generates return.
Should I buy stocks directly or opt the mutual fund route?
If you have the required knowledge about stock markets and can track and analyse market movements, you can invest in stocks directly. On the other hand, if you want diversification and gain from the expertise of the fund manager, then it’s prudent to opt for the mutual fund route. If you go with mutual fund, follow the systematic investment plan (SIP). This approach will further help you in lowering the risk associated with equity investing.
Markets are trading at an all-time high. Should I invest a lump sum?
Markets are overvalued at the moment, and a near term correction can’t be ruled out. You may invest a lump sum, but it’s better to invest in a staggered manner. Further, diversify your investments across asset classes. You may even consider balanced advantage funds that dynamically adjust equity and debt component as per the prevailing conditions.
I want to invest in debt. What are some of the prudent options?
While investing in debt instruments, you must follow the SLR (Safety, liquidity and return) principle. So, first gauge the safety of the debt instrument, followed by liquidity and then look at returns. You need to build a portfolio that is not only safe but also generated average return that exceeds inflation. To achieve this objective, you will have to create a mixed portfolio of bank FD, high quality AAA & AA rated bonds and NCDs. You may consider liquid funds for liquidity. If you are a senior citizen, then Senior Citizen Savings Scheme can also be considered.
Should I take a family floater health insurance or a separate plan for critical ailments?
You should have a separate health insurance and critical illness cover. A family floater plan offers coverage to all the members of a family while a critical illness plan covers you financially from high costs of treatment of critical ailments.
What is the new schedule DI in the income tax forms?
Because of the pandemic, the government extended the date for making tax-savings investments for FY 19-20 to July 31, 2020. In the income tax form, the new schedule DI enables you to claim exemptions on investments that you have made during the extended period, up to June 30, 2020.
Be careful while filling up this section and avoid mentioning investments that you want to claim exemption for in the current financial year.
What are offshore mutual funds? Is it a good idea to invest in them?
Offshore mutual funds are schemes that invest in international markets. They are a good option to gain geographical diversification and participate in growth stories of foreign companies.
Offshore funds help in reducing country specific risk. If domestic markets underperform, chances are that offshore may be outperforming. Investing in offshore funds can help you shore up returns.
For any more queries, please tweet to us @EdelweissWM using #AskEdelweiss and we’d be happy to answer them.